Tesla bet battery, seize the opportunity of electric car?

The market is very optimistic about Tesla's future development prospects. If Tesla is just a traditional car company, then it is absolutely impossible to enjoy this treatment.

In terms of indications, Tesla is completely incompatible with competitors such as Ford and General Motors. Ford sold 6.6 million cars in 2016 and GM sold 10 million. What about Tesla? Only sold 76,000 vehicles. Both Ford and General Motors maintained healthy earnings in 2016, but Tesla was losing money.

But earlier this month, Tesla's market value surpassed Ford in one fell swoop, and once surpassed GM to become the nation's highest-value automaker.

One of the important reasons for the surge in Tesla's market value is its bold bet on the battery industry, which may yield huge returns in the future. Because Tesla's cars are all pure electric cars, a car needs about 1,000 times the battery capacity of a smartphone. Therefore, in order to make electric vehicles become mainstream technology, large-scale production of batteries is required. This scale far exceeds the scale of the battery industry corresponding to current smart phones and other portable devices.

Tesla's upcoming Model 3, which will be released later this year, will be an important test for the battery industry. The batteries used in these cars will be produced at the Giga plant in Tesla Nevada. If the Model 3 is sold after its launch, the Gigabit plant must ensure that sufficient batteries are available to meet market demand. The days of other car companies are not good, because they not only have to design a similar style of car, but also find the right supplier to provide more batteries.

However, according to industry experts, Tesla's advantages in the battery will not last forever, other battery manufacturers may catch up in one to two years. But two years is enough to provide Tesla with a huge competitive advantage, which not only establishes Tesla's leading position in the electric vehicle field, but also allows Tesla to have further investment conditions and help it always better than its competitors. One step ahead.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has long foreseen a significant increase in battery demand, and he proposed a plan to build a Giga plant in 2013. The Gigabit plant began production last year, and Tesla hopes that it will not only meet Tesla's battery demand when competitors' battery supply is stretched, but also reduce battery production costs through economies of scale.

Tesla is expected to launch Model 3 this summer, and the Giga plant has been operating several months ahead of schedule. The Model 3 is priced at only $35,000, and Tesla has set a target of hundreds of thousands of annual sales for the new car. If Model 3 is sold after its launch, it will inevitably put pressure on other automakers. Those automakers will scramble to increase the production of cheap electric vehicles to compete with Model 3. But they don't have their own Gigabit factories, so they may face the problem of insufficient battery supply.

Axios journalist Steve LeVine once wrote a book about the battery industry. He said: "Muske is a visionary who has been brave enough to take risks from the start. On the contrary, those in Detroit Traditional car manufacturers have been hesitant in this regard."

Can Musk’s bold strategy work? You will see it in the next two years.

Tesla invested a lot of money in the Giga factory. Tesla's initial budget was $5 billion, but so far it has not announced how much the company actually invested in the Gigatron plant. The Giga factory is a joint venture between Tesla and Panasonic, and is also supported by Nevada's tax relief.

Tesla Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel revealed the strategy behind the Gigatron factory in his speech in 2014. “The growth potential in the energy storage sector is amazing,” he said. “We will double the world’s energy storage capacity through a single plant. This is a growth period, and we will reshape the entire supply chain and battery production methods. We will borrow This opportunity reduces the cost of all components."

Tesla believes that building such a large plant with a capacity comparable to that of all other battery manufacturers around the world will help to significantly reduce costs.

Straubel said in 2014: "We will enter the most upstream of the battery manufacturing process, we will trace back to the source of raw materials. If you can increase production and purchasing power, even the cost of these raw materials can be reduced."

Except for Tesla and Gigatron factory partner Panasonic, no one knows if Tesla has achieved its goal of reducing costs. However, Levin said that research shows that Tesla's goal of reducing costs is achievable.

Levin said: "If you can produce 100,000 cars (of course, no one does this now), you will find a clear turning point on the cost curve. This is the goal that the Gigatron factory pursues, that is, 100,000 or even More cars produce batteries that meet the conditions of the inflection point of cost reduction to enjoy the advantages of economies of scale."

Establishing such a large-scale battery manufacturing plant is extremely risky, especially for a small company like Tesla. The goal of the Gigabit plant is to provide enough batteries for 500,000 vehicles a year. It expects its own car production facility in Fremont, Calif., to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.

Although Tesla sold only 22,450 flagship models, Model S, in 2013, it proposed the idea of ​​building a Giga plant at that time. If the demand for 500,000 cars cannot be fulfilled in 2018, Tesla will find itself in a very embarrassing situation. Although it has a very large battery production plant, it does not need so many batteries. Of course, Tesla also said that these batteries can also be used in home appliances and other power systems.

But Musk believes that it is now necessary to expand the scale of Tesla's business. He said in 2015: "I know all the suppliers, I can tell you responsibly that they are not in favor of investing billions of dollars to build a battery manufacturing plant. This is a chicken and egg problem, the car The company can't guarantee to the battery supplier that they will need a lot of batteries because they can't guarantee that they can sell enough electric cars. So I understand that if we don't have such a huge battery factory, we won't get it. With enough lithium batteries, no one will help us produce so many batteries."

“The big car manufacturers are very cautious, they want to see this strategy succeed in other companies before they approve and implement such a plan.”

Next year, we can see if the strategy of Muskot's battery is working. Tesla has a long way to go to get an annual output of 500,000 cars, but it has received 400,000 Model 3 bookings and it is expected that production in Fremont will begin production later this year. If customers accept and love Model3 and the production plant in Fremont can increase production scale, then Gigatron can help Tesla to outperform all competitors in the electric vehicle field.

On the other hand, if Model 3's post-marketing reputation is not good, or if the production plant in Fremont drags Tesla's hind legs, the result will have a disastrous effect on Tesla's earnings report, Giga factory A lot of capacity will be left idle.

Of course, even if the strategy of the Giga plant is effective, it is not enough to support Wall Street's optimistic expectations for Tesla. Even if Tesla produces 500,000 Model 3s a year, it will not be able to catch up with competitors' car production, and other car manufacturers will solve the battery supply problem sooner or later.

The crux of the matter is whether Tesla can turn the advantages of the Gigatron plant into its long-term competitive advantage in the electric vehicle sector.

Menahem Anderman, a battery expert at Total Battery ConsulTIng, is skeptical. He pointed out that many overseas battery manufacturers, especially LG and Samsung, are also investing heavily to increase battery capacity.

In an interview, Anderman said: "If the car manufacturers have demand, these battery manufacturers can quickly increase production capacity." He also said that LG has significantly reduced the battery price, which may weaken Tesla's cost advantage.

Anderman admits that if the market demand for Model3 is high, Tesla will indeed get a first-mover advantage. He said: "If the market demand is high, they will definitely get a certain advantage, but it will not be very big."

This is also the reason why the first-mover advantage is important. If Tesla can achieve its goal of producing 500,000 cars a year in 2018, it can set a higher production plan for the next few years. It will accumulate a wealth of knowledge and experience through the initial success of the Giga plant, while building confidence in building a larger battery manufacturing plant. In contrast, other automakers lack these experiences and Bitsla is always one step behind.

Apple is a good example. Apple has achieved great success through a strategy that guarantees an adequate supply of key components such as liquid crystal displays through large long-term orders, while also minimizing the cost of those critical components. Apple can do this because it only produces a limited number of products each year, and it has a large number of loyal fans to ensure that the sales of these products are very impressive. Product sales are guaranteed to mitigate the risks Apple bears. By contrast, other smartphone vendors cannot easily predict which products will sell well.

If Tesla sells more electric cars than other automakers in 2018 and 2019 and brings more users to Tesla, Tesla can become the electric car industry if the early advantages of battery supply allow Tesla to sell more electric cars than other automakers in 2018 and 2019. "Apple".

The electric motor is cheaper and more simple than the internal combustion engine used in the conventional automobile. But so far, the cost of electric vehicles is much more expensive than traditional cars. The reason is simple: the battery cost is too high. Anderman estimates that a Model 3 model with a price of $35,000 is worth about $9,000, which is more expensive than any other component.

However, the production cost of batteries has been steadily declining, which is about 7% per year. According to industry experts, the trend of battery production costs will continue. Therefore, the economy of Tesla Motors will improve steadily in the next few years. Every year, the most expensive components on Tesla cars will become cheaper. The production cost of conventional automotive components is unlikely to maintain such a speed decline.

Soon, we will find that the price of electric cars is cheaper than the price of traditional cars. Bloomberg analysis found that the total cost of owning an electric car may fall below the total cost of owning a conventional car in 2022. For Tesla's balance sheet, this is probably the biggest good news.

Investors who are not optimistic about Tesla may point out that cars are low-margin products, so Tesla can't achieve great success when the auto business is profitable. But that's because Tesla's cars are now more expensive than the traditional cars sold by Detroit automakers. In a few years, the actual price of a traditional car will be higher than that of an electric car, and the gap between the two will increase year by year.

If Tesla can become a leading electric vehicle manufacturer at that time, its financial performance will be very beautiful. As the cost declines faster than the competition, its profit margin will inevitably become higher and higher; as more and more customers turn from traditional cars to electric cars, Tesla will have greater expansion in capacity. flexibility.

3D Home Gaming Projector

With the improvement of people's quality of life, more and more people will choose to buy 3D projectors at home, which can be used to play movies on weekends and release work pressure.

advantage:
a. Compared with the traditional Office Projector, the internal structure of the home 3D projector is simpler and the volume is much smaller, which is convenient to move and carry.

b. It can bring a better viewing effect to the user, and its large screen can bring a certain visual impact to the user.

c. Compared with traditional projectors, home 3D projectors have more advantages in the color of the picture, which can reach 120% of the NTSC color gamut, and the colors are rich and diverse.

3d home theater projector,3d home projector,3d 1080p projector,3d projector video,3d projector 2022

Shenzhen Happybate Trading Co.,LTD , https://www.happybateprojector.com