2016 LED market value of about 14.95 billion US dollars will enter a period of easing
The LED industry is subject to severe price competition. The output value growth in 2015~2016 is only about 2~3%, and the growth has entered a gradual period.
In 2014, the LED backlight and lighting market demand was not as expected, resulting in a sharp decline in the average price of LED chips and packaging. The market estimates that due to the global economic growth fatigue, the high-brightness LED market in 2016 has an output value of approximately US$14.95 billion. 3%, even in the next five years, the annual compound growth rate of the LED industry will not easily appear as the growth rate of more than 10% in the past, and the industry growth will enter a gradual period.
Research institutions estimate that in 2015, the global high-brightness LED market value reached 14.52 billion US dollars, with an annual growth rate of only 2%. Although the demand for LED lighting is rising and replacing traditional lighting applications, the oversupply leads to an average LED price decline of 30-40%. The manufacturers are facing a loss dilemma, especially in the second half of the year, and the price of some specifications has even come to the material cost level. Although the LED is still facing the pressure of continuous price reduction in the short term, the price is close to the production cost of many manufacturers. It is expected that as more and more manufacturers withdraw from the market, the future price drop will be expected to gradually shrink.
Recently, the global LED manufacturer Nichia also mentioned similar views. It is estimated that the overall shipment of LED industry in 2016 will have an annual growth of 2~30%, and the industrial environment is still severe. Therefore, it is converted into output value, and the global LED market in 2016 Only 5% grew slightly.
The industry believes that the trend of LED lighting towards low price has been difficult to flip, with the replacement of light source products, such as LED bulbs, lamps and other product specifications gradually standardized, plus the promotion of various lighting brand manufacturers, LEDs in most countries in 2015 The retail price of bulbs is close to the price of traditional energy-saving lamps. It is expected that lighting manufacturers will continue to look for lower-cost solutions in 2016. In addition to LEDs, other components such as driving power supplies are also one of the price reduction opportunities for the overall system. Through low retail prices and increased product sales to increase market share, it is expected that alternative light source products will be widely popularized within three years.
In the LED backlight application part, Korean LED manufacturers have introduced flip-chip LED technology to TV LED backlight field since 2015. It is expected that the Korean TV brand will adopt a large number of flip-chip LED backlights in 2016. Research institutions estimate that flip-chip LED technology The penetration rate of TV LED backlights will increase to over 50% in 2017.
In October, Nichia was officially mass-produced the latest flip-chip LED product "Direct Mountable Chip". It is expected that shipments in 2016 will show a growth rate of 3 jumps, although more and more manufacturers are investing now, due to The yield and production cost of flip chip LED technology development, only a few manufacturers have flip chip LED (Flip Chip LED) technology as the main product, Japan and Asia have also recently named, currently Crystal is a small number of LED chips in the LED factory Those with better technical performance, it is reported that Jingdian has extended the flip-chip LED process to packaging technology, and is also one of the few Taiwanese companies that directly supply flip-chip LED products to major manufacturers such as Samsung.
The industry believes that due to fierce price competition, many LED manufacturers have recently begun to seek transformation, or through mergers and acquisitions to other areas, in order to get rid of the price of the competition in the Red Sea market, compared to Taiwan LED industry's 2015 stock price performance is not good, the mainland LED factory With the stock market fundraising and government funding support, they have launched overseas acquisitions and targeted the international LED patent manufacturers and lighting brands to reinforce their patents and overseas sales channels, which will become a trend worthy of attention in the future.
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