NVIDIA: No 28nm this year

Although TSMC and GlobalFoundries are pushing the 28nm new process, we also expect NVIDIA and AMD to launch 28nm graphics cards this year, but the reality is cruel.

NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun told analysts at the financial conference: “There is no 28nm this year and we have to wait until the first year. I think that if we want to ship in the third quarter (Kal-El Tegra 3), we must get it at the beginning of the second quarter. Wafers, right? So, 28nm is impossible. Second, 40nm production has entered the third year, and the yield rate is very impressive now. So the 40nm process is definitely the best choice. It is the most mature. The yield rate is so high that we can quickly achieve high output."

NVIDIA recently demonstrated the Kal-El Tegra chip that has just completed the sample, with four Cortex-A9 processor cores, a new GeForce GPU graphics core and 12 vertex/texture units, support for 2560×1600 resolution, and 3D stereoscopic display. The video engine runs at a higher frequency than Tegra 2, and the typical load power consumption is basically the same.

NVIDIA expects Tegra 3-based smart phones and tablet products to emerge from August this year, and TSMC 28nm technology will not be fully commercial until the fourth quarter of this year, it is too late, NVIDIA's move to start developing Tegra 3 at 40nm also proved 28nm still needs no short time.

According to TSMC's process roadmap, 28nm will contribute 2-3% of revenue in the fourth quarter of this year, and in fact it will be around US$100 million. The scale of a newly born semiconductor process is not too small, but it is obviously not high enough.

Huang Renxun added: "Actually, 40nm is more economical than 28nm this year. We expect it to continue into the first half of 2012 (or even the middle of next year)."

Interestingly, NVIDIA also seems to be interested in mimicking the Intel Tick-Tock strategy, with the manufacturing process alternating with the core architecture. Huang Renxun explained: “The first step is to change the architecture, the next step is to upgrade the process. Basically every other year there will be a new process. I think this rhythm is not bad. I mean, this is basically the whole The progress of industrial processes. This is why Tegra 2, Tegra Kal-El uses the same process, and it will be 28 nm."

In any case, it is not possible to see the 28nm large-scale debut this year. The best situation is that there are some pioneering products to explore the road at the end of the year. TSMC, how can you not be faster?