The global car enterprise competition pattern changes, Tesla will become foggy in the future

On February 6, 2018, the world's most powerful heavy-duty launch vehicle, the FalconHeavy, plans to fly for the first time. One of the missions of this space trip is to make the SpaceX founder also Tesla CEO. ElonMusk's private car, the Roadster sports car, was sent into space. At the time when Tesla Roadster is about to travel in space, Tesla, a 15-year-old star car company whose market value has surpassed Ford's car, suffered from new energy component production and automatic driving at the beginning of 2018. Questioning and even fierce criticism.

On the one hand, the mass production problem plagued the development of Tesla, and now the situation of “selling a lose one” has always been difficult to improve; on the other hand, the electrification reform of global car companies makes the Tesla model unique. Exist, the competitive landscape changes. What is more serious is that the shortage of new energy vehicle battery capacity and the unfavorable development of autonomous driving technology have made Tesla's future become foggy.

Barbaric growth suffers from four sides

"Tesla's car is very technical, and then Tesla's new super run will be concerned." Mr. Fan of Taizhou, Zhejiang, China told reporters that Mr. Fan, who is in his twenties, already owns a Tesla ModelS. .

In Tesla's important overseas market China, the latest sales show is quite good. In the past 2017, specific to the brand, China's imported pure electric vehicle market is still firmly controlled by Tesla. In 2017, 16,727 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 43%.

With the release of sales in the fourth quarter, global sales in 2017 was a record year for Tesla, an electric car manufacturer. Tesla delivered approximately 103,000 vehicles in 2017, of which approximately 49% are estimated to flow to the United States. As of now, ModelS/X/3 has sold nearly 287,000 units worldwide, of which approximately 160,000 (about 56%) are sold in the US market.

Along with the sales boom, the capital market recognizes Tesla. In mid-2017, Tesla (TSLA) market value surpassed Ford (F) for the first time and is close to General Motors (GM). As the CEO of Tesla, Musk opened a new long-term equity incentive plan on January 23, 2018 and set up a "military order." "Unless Tesla achieves ambitious financial goals in the next 10 years, I will not Will get paid," Musk said.

At the same time as the rhetoric, Musk set a target of $650 billion in market value for Tesla. Tesla's current market value is just over $60 billion. It can be seen that there are only three US companies with market capitalization of more than $650 billion, namely Apple, Google's parent company Alphabet and Microsoft.

The latest research report provided by Nomura Securities to reporters pointed out that after completing the 12-term option incentive request, Musk can choose stock options, which is equivalent to 1% of Tesla's current unissued shares, and if there is no incentive requirement, So Musk will not receive any compensation, no salary, no cash bonus, and no equity acquired over time. "It is expected that this news will alleviate people's concerns." Nomura Securities research report pointed out.

But in fact, while selling the Kaegaya high, the savage growth of Tesla is suffering from more and more concerns and doubts from all sides. In an interview in December 2017, Volkswagen China President Jochem Heizmann expressed his respect for Tesla's exploration and exploration in the new field, but expressed his interest in Tesla's profit. Keep the attitude, "Does Tesla make money?" Heizman asked the first financial reporter.

In the previous two months, Vasily Group Motors CEO Matthias Muller’s evaluation was much more direct. “If the information I get is accurate, Tesla will burn millions of dollars every quarter, and it’s still Dismissing employees at will. Where is social responsibility?” Muller said.

In fact, Tesla went public in 2010, but it has only achieved two quarters of profit, one in the first quarter of 2013 and the third in 2016.

What is particularly noteworthy is that the two points of helping the Tesla success and the new energy battery production and autonomous driving technology that Tesla is leading the new technology trend of the car have recently been questioned. According to Tesla's third-quarter sales and production performance report for 2017, it produced only 260 Model 3 models in the third quarter, far below the previous target of “over 1500” in September.

The astounding Tesla seems to have reached the crossroads of development.

Where is the automatic assisted driving Autopilot road?

As an American electric vehicle and energy company headquartered in Silicon Valley, California, one of Tesla's important selling points is “automatic assisted driving”. The official name of the black technology is “Autopilot”, after October 2014. The factory Tesla is equipped with automatic assisted driving hardware, and has accumulated a large number of automatic assisted driving data.

However, a new report from Navigant in 2018 has drawn attention. The report lists and represents 19 representative unmanned car companies. Tesla is the only Silicon Valley company with extensive experience in manufacturing cars. Should have the advantage of taking full advantage of driverlessness. But this is not the case. Among the 19 companies, Navigant put Tesla at the end. After the breakup with Mobileye, Tesla's research and development capabilities and technical standards in driverless driving are worthy of attention.

Autopilot, which is equipped with Tesla's current model, relies mainly on EQ3 chips from Mobileye. According to the official expression of Mobileye, this chip is just a driver assistance chip that can meet the driving assistance functions of L1 and L2.

As an Israeli technology company that has been working in the field of autonomous driving for decades, Mobileye has previously believed that Tesla has been challenging the safety limits of EQ3 chips and has opened up too radical functions to users on Autopilot, even exceeding the EQ3 chip. Performance limit. So Mobileye announced in March 2017 that Tesla will terminate its future cooperation.

Tesla, who had no chip supplier, found NVIDIA. After breaking up with Mobileye, the Autopilot on the Tesla model was based on the NVIDIA DrivePX2 and switched to a visual recognition system called TeslaVision. As a self-driving computing chip, the DrivePX2 is divided into three grades. The performance from low to high is DrivePX2 cruise version, private driver version and fully automatic driving version.

The only fully-automated DrivePX2 that supports fully automated driving has two sets of chips and requires water cooling. However, according to the dismantling of the DrivePX2 on the car by a Tesla owner in the United States, the DrivePX2 used by Tesla is a single-chip chip that uses air-cooled. Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun also commented that Tesla's DrivePX2 can achieve L3-level assisted driving, but if you want to reach the L5 level, you still need to work with dual chips. In other words, Tesla's DrivePX2 is just a regular version, not an advanced version that supports L5 fully automatic driving.

"Now Tesla's own Autopilot 2.0 driving experience is not as good as Autopilot 1.0." Zhu Xi, director of the Automotive Safety Technology Research Institute of Tongji University, told the First Financial Reporter that in his opinion, Tesla did encounter it. To the short-term dilemma, because Tesla is now trying to do algorithms and chips, and Mobileye has at least 30 years of experience. However, in the long run, although the immediate effect may be somewhat unsatisfactory, it is good for Tesla's future development.

For the data of a large number of automatic assisted driving accumulated by Tesla, Zhuxi also has his own opinion. He pointed out that Tesla has accumulated a large amount of data, is it an advantage, and it is unclear how much it is used. Everyone knows. It's useful, but it's useful, there's uncertainty, and there are no successful precedents. "Everyone in the automatic driving is hoping to explore the big data, they are working hard, Tesla is also working hard, to say that there are many data, and other car companies have a lot of data, GM has Anjixing, Toyota's G-Book I also collected data. "How many cars does Tesla have in a hundred thousand vehicles a year? Zhu Xi said.

New energy battery capacity is seriously insufficient

As a Tesla CEO who likes to interact on the Internet and consumes, Musk has said that Tesla strives to provide every ordinary consumer with pure electric vehicles within its consumption power. However, capacity is becoming an important bottleneck for Tesla.

As the most popular model in the Tesla family, Model3 was previously considered a key product for Tesla electric vehicles to go to the public. On July 28, 2017, Tesla held the first batch of 30 delivery ceremonies of Model3 in California, and announced two Model3 models. The standard Model3 can travel more than 345 kilometers on a single charge and sell for $35,000. Regional), the high battery mileage can reach 500 kilometers, the price is 44,000 US dollars, and the installation of autopilot assembly requires an additional payment of 8,000 US dollars.

Nearly 500,000 consumers had previously booked Model3, and each paid a $1,000 deposit. But Tesla said last week that by the end of the first quarter, Model3 produced about 2,500 vehicles per week, which is only half of the promised figure. Tesla plans to produce 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of the second quarter. This delay also caused Tesla's stock to fall by 2%.

Tesla delivered only 1,550 Model 3 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2017, which is lower than Wall Street's expectations. According to financial data and analysis firm FactSet, analysts had estimated that Tesla will deliver 4,100 Model 3s in the fourth quarter.

According to CNBC's January 26 report, several Tesla employees said that part of the work of the Tesla Super Factory to produce Model3 batteries was still done by hand. At the same time, Tesla had to “borrow” a large number of employees from battery supplier Panasonic to help complete the manual assembly task.

In fact, starting with Tesla ModelS, Tesla has been facing delivery problems caused by insufficient capacity as new car orders continue to grow. After the introduction of Model3, which is half the price of ModelS, the current order volume of nearly 500,000 sheets has already been overwhelmed by the Tesla Super Factory.

For the capacity bottleneck of Tesla's high-volume production of low-profile Model3 batteries, a Tesla spokesperson responded that some production processes will be completed manually before reaching the maximum capacity, Musk and CTO JB Strauss ( JBStrausel) has discussed this issue in depth in the 2017 third quarter earnings analysts conference call, which will not be for Teslain

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