Analysis of China's mobile phone industry in 2018, 5G industry hope
The 4G mobile phone has declining for the first time with the saturation of the market, and the mobile phone industry has entered the winter, running through the smart phone industry in 2017. After maintaining its growth for many years, mobile phone sales stopped short and turned down. According to Gartner, global smartphone sales in the fourth quarter of 2017 were 408 million units, down 5.6% from the same period last year. According to data from the Prospective Industry Research Institute's "2018-2023 China's Smartphone Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report", the global market for mobile phone shipments in 2017 was 1.46 billion units, down 0.5% year-on-year. IDC said that the decline in global market shipments has a lot to do with the sluggish demand in the Chinese market. European market shipments fell by 3.5%, while the US market was flat. In 2017, Chinese market shipments fell by 5%.
Chart 1: Global mobile phone sales growth trend chart for 2013-2017 (unit: 100 million, %)
Chart 2: China Mobile Phone Sales Growth Trends 2013-2017 (Unit: 100 million units, %)
Due to fierce competition in the domestic market, mobile phone prices are also going down. Although the prices of high-end products of some mobile phone brands have been rising in recent years, the prices of those products that have actually gone through have been falling. Some phones that claim to be full-screen, rear-mounted dual-camera, and face recognition support have fallen below 1,000 yuan. Forward-looking Industrial Research Institute predicts that competition in the mobile phone market will be even more cruel this year.
Fortunately, the 5G era is coming, users need to change their mobile phones to use 5G, which will inject a strong booster into the majority of mobile phone manufacturers. The industry uses high-rate, low-latency, and large-capacity to describe the characteristics of 5G communication, which brings not only the increase of the Internet access rate, but also new application scenarios. 4G is more focused on the connection between people, and in the 5G era, the wide range of connections between people and things, things and things ushered in. From the perspective of the 5G industry chain, the upstream of the industry includes communication equipment such as base stations, antennas, optical cables, chips, and radio frequency devices. The midstream is the major telecom operators, and the users are all kinds of terminal equipment such as mobile phones. The maturity of the 5G industry chain requires multi-party collaboration, and the short-term appearance of one of the rings affects the popularity of terminals such as mobile phones.
Figure 3: 5G Industry Chain Architecture
A battle on 5G mobile phones has started. Before the arrival of 5G, the strength of the major manufacturers will be in the dark, and all the breakouts are waiting for the basic application support of 5G. Mobile phone manufacturers have begun to lay out their plans in the future, including, of course, terminals such as Qualcomm, Samsung, Apple, and Huawei, and even chips. In fact, both chip vendors and operators are quietly playing Call for 5G. The pace of early deployment and even the introduction of pilots is getting faster and faster, which will force mobile phone manufacturers to plan for their future market as soon as possible, in order to cooperate with operators. The 5G pilot also requires a batch of products in the early stage to cater to the tests of the market and operators. This also speeds up the 5G layout speed from one side. Especially when several major markets are grabbing the 5G bridgehead, the strength of this first layout will be in the dark, which will push the 5G ahead.
Figure 4: 5G mobile phone enterprise layout
Data show that global smartphone shipments in 2017 were 1.46 billion units, down 0.5%, the first year-on-year decline since the launch of smartphones. In the face of increasingly saturated markets, the real new application may be waiting for the arrival of 5G. Therefore, the next vent may have been bred, of course, who can really control the switching of this vent, perhaps not just the mobile phone itself, because in the 5G era, the application will be more diverse, the breakout of Internet of Things, driverless and other technologies They are waiting for the basic application support of 5G.
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