Rational use of capital is the right way for the development of the industrial robot industry

Capital, capital, or capital.

Although it is the most unfamiliar role for most companies in the industry, capital has quietly played a role that cannot be ignored. In fact, even two or three years ago, the industrial robot industry did not enter the field of public capital. Except for some very few investors who have long been concerned about the automation and manufacturing industries, most investors still focus on TMT, medical care, etc. It is a popular industry, so even if a small amount of capital enters the industry, it does not attract too many people's attention. However, as the Internet industry loses its direction, and there are unbearably high primary market valuations, more and more capital begins to look for new investment directions and targets. In recent years, capital seems to have seen the direction of the way forward and began to pay more and more attention to this industry that was once completely out of the spotlight. As a result of the attention, a large number of capitals poured in rapidly, and a large amount of investment was deployed in various positions of the industrial chain. For a time, Luoyang paper was expensive, showing a thriving scene. However, if you observe calmly, you will find that behind this scene, hidden deeper are the chaos of various industries, and even profoundly changed the ecology of the industry.

Although the industrial robot industry sounds very "tall", it is an out-and-out manufacturing industry, in other words, it still has to follow the basic laws of manufacturing. First, the growth of the companies involved is slow, and it takes a long time to accumulate before reaching the breaking point; second, the profit margin is generally low, which cannot be compared with many high-margin industries; third, the competition is relatively fierce, and the entry threshold is not high. Before a large amount of capital entered, the industry has been in a natural development stage of exploration, self-adjustment, growth, and exploration. Although this natural development is slow, it is also reasonable for the industry. There is no state subsidy and no capital. The leading companies that have grown out of them are truly market-tested and highly competitive companies. However, with the intervention of government subsidies and capital, the industry ecology has undergone great changes, just like other industries in China that receive subsidies and capital intervention. First of all, a group of people with a speculative mentality entered the industry. The purpose of this group of people is very clear. They can get subsidies, get a handful and leave. This has created a mess of robot industrial parks all over the place in the past two years, and finally chicken feathers all over the place. Government subsidies have not ceased, and investors from the Internet industry have turned to enter in succession. This batch of capital still has a very strong imprint of Internet thinking logic. They pay more attention to whether the team is "glossy" and whether the story logic is "reasonable". Dream companies can grow explosively, go public in three years, and are not sensitive to valuation. But they completely overlooked one point. This is a manufacturing industry that is completely different from the Internet ecosystem. It is necessary to respect the basic laws of development of the manufacturing industry.

First of all, the manufacturing industry has its own special development laws and industry characteristics. Any team or individual who has achieved attainments in the manufacturing industry must have at least ten years of experience in the industry, stepping on countless pits, eating After countless losses and a deep understanding and cognition of the industry, such a team may truly have a strong combat effectiveness, which is completely different from the Internet industry that can create miracles with a single idea. Therefore, the average age of the manufacturing team to start a business is over 35 years old. They have just stepped out of the university or research institute, and they do not have any industrial experience and experience. Claiming to dominate the industry is a nonsense. However, due to the traditional characteristics of the industry, practitioners are basically in a state of isolation from capital and have no understanding of capital and its operation. However, because capital has no knowledge of the industry before, it still has an inherent mindset, and the information on both sides is inconsistent. Symmetry has reached a high degree. Some investors are more willing to look for the so-called "excellent team", that is, young people with a prestigious school background and a bright resume. These young people are active in thinking, familiar with capital, and familiar with the capital market. They can talk about exciting things for investors. Language and stories are packaged as capital likes; and the really powerful teams usually seem to have neither star halo or high education, nor do they understand capital, chatting like "chicken and duck", so capital finally chooses Most of them are the former team, which is also an investment judgment based on prior knowledge, which is no different from seeking a sword in a boat. As everyone knows, even in Yaskawa, one of the "Four Great Masters", at least 1/3 of its employees graduated from Japanese colleges and universities, and most of the rest are university graduates, and doctors are almost rare. This is a typical manufacturing company. personnel structure;

Secondly, the 2B characteristics of the downstream of industrial robots and the dispersion of "long tail" customers make the early market development stage quite difficult, even for industry veterans. Before gradually establishing a market position and entering the fast lane, a wait of three to five years is a relatively optimistic estimate. In other words, the story of "getting rich overnight" cannot happen here. At this time, valuation becomes very important. The application of high valuations in industries without high explosive growth is a disaster in itself. It can be foreseen with great certainty that in three to five years at most, all kinds of high-valued "net red companies" that have recently been touted by the capital market in the industrial robot industry and the vision industry will basically disappear, and investors are paying enough tuition fees. After that, either learn how to look at this unfamiliar industry and continue to struggle; or simply quit the industry. At this time, the industry has to pay for the overnight carnival brought about by this batch of immature capital. This kind of damage is not one-sided, but two-way, not only for the company, but also for the industry.

In terms of companies, the above-mentioned capitals do not understand the characteristics of the industry, place unrealistically high expectations on the company's growth rate, and pay high valuations, which inevitably means that the capital will exert considerable pressure on the company, because the essence of capital is still Profit-seeking, especially the profit-seeking tendency of short-term capital, will be more obvious. When it is found that the company's growth is not as good as expected, this pressure will lead to the deformation of the company's actions, the inability to implement its own strategies and tactics well, and the company's lack of hematopoietic ability. The high financing valuation relieves the huge pressure from the previous round of investors. However, the story cannot last for a long time. Once the company fails to make corresponding progress within the limited time that investors can wait, and the capital also sees the essence of the industry and gradually returns to rationality, the bubble will burst.

On the industry side, it’s hard for blindly entrenched capital to put money into the right brick-and-mortar businesses, and ridiculous valuations can lead to some “influencer” companies getting a lot of money when they have neither the technology nor the market. If this kind of misallocated funds are only used up by startup companies, the damage is not too great. At most, it will make the cost of acquiring talents in the industry higher. However, if companies use funds to expand in the industry and poach around, Or conduct vicious competition at low prices, which will not cause any damage to the industry, and from past observations, such a company will inevitably carry out the above actions after getting money due to its lack of technology and market capabilities. This will not only make the good companies that develop naturally in the industry face vicious competition and affect their normal development, but also this practice of killing one thousand enemies and eight hundred injuring oneself will eventually lead to the spread of vicious competition in the entire industry, and will lead to the normal development of the industry. Dragged into the quagmire, the vitality is greatly damaged. And the more capital-intensive the industry enters, the more frequent such things happen, so doing evil to the industry's capital is the real big trouble. For the industrial robotics industry, this negative impact may be even more pronounced. Mainly because the industrial robot industry is a capital-intensive industry with huge demand for capital, and the impact of capital can be huge, both positive and negative. Under such an industry background, excellent companies in the industry must actively learn capital-related knowledge, get in touch with capital, understand capital, and make good use of capital. In fact, a large number of capital bubbles have emerged in the industrial robot industry. If it is allowed to develop, the industry's prospects will be bleak. Once the bubble bursts and companies in the industry suffer large-scale damage, the development of the entire industry will lag at least three to five years.

But what needs to be seen is that capital is a double-edged sword. If capital can be used well, not only will it not cause damage to the industry, but it will greatly accelerate the development of the industry. Capital has no good or bad attributes, the key is to see where it is used. Whether it is the current large-scale R&D investment required by various enterprises to expand production or to improve technical capabilities, there is a strong demand for capital. Even in the second stage in the future, the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain, from components to ontology to integration, after initial development, will inevitably achieve industrial integration, upgrading and repositioning through a large number of mergers and acquisitions, in which capital will play a role. very important role.

In the future, "crisis" and "opportunity" will coexist, and the industrial robot industry should not repeat the low-price deadlock of many other domestic industries.

At present, the downstream market of China's industrial robots has not been fully opened. Ontology vendors still repeat a large number of low-quality and low-cost products in some single categories and applications, crushing each other. Therefore, if you don't find a better blue ocean market and dessert, then in the field of Ontology The ultimate winner is hardly the active player with the highest share in the current market. For component manufacturers, both controllers and reducers are in a staggering start-up stage, requiring a lot of R&D investment to improve their products and shorten the distance between them and international giants. If the profit margin is blindly suppressed by the downstream and cannot be invested in research and development, the product will not be able to be further improved, which means that the downstream body can still only compete at low prices in some low-requirement applications and low-barrier occasions. Entering a vicious circle, it may even directly destroy the fledgling Chinese industrial robot industry. The current industrial robot market is like a dangerous chess game. All players, no matter how good the current situation is, if they can’t jump out of the current low-price competition situation, they are likely to make one mistake and lose the whole game in the future. At present, the key to solving the bureau is in the hands of the ontologies, looking for terminal pain-point applications with stronger payment capabilities, developing the blue ocean market with different application scenarios, jumping out of the inertial thinking of low-price competition, and leaving enough profit space for upstream parts manufacturers, Only by performing their own duties, doing their own things well, working together to spend the childhood of Chinese industrial robots, and creating a good competitive environment, can we open up a broad road for the industrial robot industry.

In this process, I believe that the winning company will have some or even all of the following characteristics: have a deep understanding of capital and can make good use of capital; have a relatively comprehensive layout in key components, whether it is Independent research and development, mergers and acquisitions, or equity participation in parts companies; with certain integrated application capabilities, a deep understanding of the application needs of downstream end customers, and the ability to develop different application markets. And these industrial robot companies that have grown up in China will eventually become China's new "Four Masters", competing with traditional industry giants.

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