LED market outbreak critical point is in the next seven years of industrial boom
In March of this year, Shenzhen City announced the abolition of the LED industry planning policy, which was interpreted by the outside world as avoiding the second "photovoltaic". A few days ago, the reporter conducted a survey on the current situation of LED companies. From the perspective of the first line, the demand for LED backlighting and lighting has been strong this year, and orders from chip, packaging and application manufacturers are full. Some entrepreneurs and industry analysts believe that LED outbreaks will start in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a seven to eight-year boom.
LED industry space is huge
Lighting market outbreak is approaching
Authoritative data predict that the global lighting market will exceed $150 billion by 2020, an increase of 11.9% from $134 billion in 2010. Although the overall scale growth is not large, the lighting product structure will change significantly. Among them, the LED lighting market share will increase from about 5 billion US dollars in 2010 to 75 billion US dollars. That is to say, 10 times expansion in 10 years. In addition, according to data from an industrial research institute in Taiwan, the current penetration rate of global LED lighting is only 10%. By 2015 or at the latest by 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50%.
Entrepreneur feelings from the front line of LED are equally optimistic, saying that "the industry is outbreaking soon." Gu Wei, chairman of Zhaochi (002429), said in an interview with reporters that "the LED industry has huge room for growth and it is impossible to become a second PV." The reason is that LEDs are consumer electronics. The biggest feature of consumer electronics is that it is widely used and the market is extremely broad. He judged that the critical point of the LED market outbreak is near, and the industry boom will be ushered in the next seven to eight years.
In fact, due to the high cost of chips and heat-dissipating materials, the application breadth of LED products, especially lighting products, has been limited for a long time. According to relevant data, at the beginning of 2013, the cost of LED lighting purchase was 7-8 times that of ordinary energy-saving lamps, and twice that of energy-saving lamps with dimming functions. For example, LED lighting products from mainstream European and American brands are priced at $19/thousand lumens, while ordinary energy-saving lamps sell for only $2.50/thousand lumens, and energy-saving lamps with dimming function are only $10/thousand lumens.
However, according to the reporter, there are many places where LED lighting can save costs, and the space is not small. For example, future chips are expected to continue to drop by 20%, and heat-dissipating aluminum can save 30%. Gu Wei said, "As the chip continues to cut prices, at the same time, the chip's luminous efficiency is improved, the heat sink is greatly simplified, and the price of LED lighting products is constantly approaching the energy-saving lamps."
The quote from the merchant confirms this. According to the data of Jingdong Mall in May 2013, the price of a lighting product of 800 lumens (equivalent to 60w incandescent brightness) is only 50 yuan, equivalent to 10 dollars / thousand lumens. If the export tax rebate factor is taken into account, the export price is about $9/thousand lumens. This is already possible with the energy-saving lamps with dimming function.
A securities analyst predicts that LED light sources will fall to $15/thousand lumens by the beginning of 2014, and the price of some radical Asia-Pacific lighting manufacturers will drop to $8/thousand lumens. In about 2-3 years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to a critical replacement point ($5) for large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps.
He concluded that the LED lighting market may break out in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. In terms of products, LED large-scale replacement of traditional light source products may be the first in the commercial lighting field, especially in the market segment that needs dimming function. In terms of regions, regions with higher industrial and commercial electricity prices such as Europe and Japan may be the first to start. Taking Japan as an example, the cost of using LED light sources more than ordinary energy-saving lamps can be recovered in two years. “It is expected that the home LED lighting market in Europe and Japan will start in early 2015. At the same time, the industrial and commercial lighting market in developing countries will also be launched.â€
Cost reduction space still exists
Brand manufacturers have obvious advantages
Although the LED market has a large space, brand manufacturers and cottage manufacturers are fighting hard because of the low barriers to entry. Some cottage products are even more price-competitive than brand manufacturers.
Industry insiders pointed out that brand manufacturers with production scale advantages and product cost performance advantages will eventually win. First of all, compared with the cottage manufacturers, large-scale enterprises have strong bargaining power in chip procurement; secondly, brand manufacturers are more competitive in product design and technology innovation. Although the cottage products are cheap, the main reason is the use of cheap chips and drive power, while the heat sink also has cut corners.
In fact, Zhaochi began planning the LED industry as early as 2010 and set up a subsidiary, Shenzhen Zhaochi Energy Saving Lighting Co., Ltd., to develop LED packaging, TV backlight and lighting business. In 2011, the company officially launched LED packaging, TV backlighting and lighting production. In the second half of the year, the company achieved full self-sufficiency of TV backlights; the lighting products have cooperated with first-line brands such as Op, Sanxiong Laser (Japan), TCL Luminaire, Mitsubishi Chemical (Japan), and Superb Electronic GP (Europe). The LED revenue reached 270 million yuan. It achieved the production in the same year, the profit of the year, and the scale of sales in the current year.
Gu Wei said that the current LED is like the TV in 2006 and 2007. If you invest in it and do it all, the industry will develop very fast because the market is infinite. The company considers the future to tilt resources to LEDs, continuously expands high-quality customers at home and abroad, and rapidly increases production capacity, turning LED into the company's second largest performance engine. Revenue should be 50% or more of the company's revenue.
It is understood that Zhaochi currently has 50 LED packaging lines and 8 lighting assembly lines. Next, in order to meet the needs of market development, the company will rapidly expand production capacity. "Whether it is DVD or TV, Zhaochi is the first and the worst is the top three. To do LED, we will also hold high and fight to become the domestic industry leader." Gu Wei said.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
LED industry space is huge
Lighting market outbreak is approaching
Authoritative data predict that the global lighting market will exceed $150 billion by 2020, an increase of 11.9% from $134 billion in 2010. Although the overall scale growth is not large, the lighting product structure will change significantly. Among them, the LED lighting market share will increase from about 5 billion US dollars in 2010 to 75 billion US dollars. That is to say, 10 times expansion in 10 years. In addition, according to data from an industrial research institute in Taiwan, the current penetration rate of global LED lighting is only 10%. By 2015 or at the latest by 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50%.
Entrepreneur feelings from the front line of LED are equally optimistic, saying that "the industry is outbreaking soon." Gu Wei, chairman of Zhaochi (002429), said in an interview with reporters that "the LED industry has huge room for growth and it is impossible to become a second PV." The reason is that LEDs are consumer electronics. The biggest feature of consumer electronics is that it is widely used and the market is extremely broad. He judged that the critical point of the LED market outbreak is near, and the industry boom will be ushered in the next seven to eight years.
In fact, due to the high cost of chips and heat-dissipating materials, the application breadth of LED products, especially lighting products, has been limited for a long time. According to relevant data, at the beginning of 2013, the cost of LED lighting purchase was 7-8 times that of ordinary energy-saving lamps, and twice that of energy-saving lamps with dimming functions. For example, LED lighting products from mainstream European and American brands are priced at $19/thousand lumens, while ordinary energy-saving lamps sell for only $2.50/thousand lumens, and energy-saving lamps with dimming function are only $10/thousand lumens.
However, according to the reporter, there are many places where LED lighting can save costs, and the space is not small. For example, future chips are expected to continue to drop by 20%, and heat-dissipating aluminum can save 30%. Gu Wei said, "As the chip continues to cut prices, at the same time, the chip's luminous efficiency is improved, the heat sink is greatly simplified, and the price of LED lighting products is constantly approaching the energy-saving lamps."
The quote from the merchant confirms this. According to the data of Jingdong Mall in May 2013, the price of a lighting product of 800 lumens (equivalent to 60w incandescent brightness) is only 50 yuan, equivalent to 10 dollars / thousand lumens. If the export tax rebate factor is taken into account, the export price is about $9/thousand lumens. This is already possible with the energy-saving lamps with dimming function.
A securities analyst predicts that LED light sources will fall to $15/thousand lumens by the beginning of 2014, and the price of some radical Asia-Pacific lighting manufacturers will drop to $8/thousand lumens. In about 2-3 years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to a critical replacement point ($5) for large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps.
He concluded that the LED lighting market may break out in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. In terms of products, LED large-scale replacement of traditional light source products may be the first in the commercial lighting field, especially in the market segment that needs dimming function. In terms of regions, regions with higher industrial and commercial electricity prices such as Europe and Japan may be the first to start. Taking Japan as an example, the cost of using LED light sources more than ordinary energy-saving lamps can be recovered in two years. “It is expected that the home LED lighting market in Europe and Japan will start in early 2015. At the same time, the industrial and commercial lighting market in developing countries will also be launched.â€
Cost reduction space still exists
Brand manufacturers have obvious advantages
Although the LED market has a large space, brand manufacturers and cottage manufacturers are fighting hard because of the low barriers to entry. Some cottage products are even more price-competitive than brand manufacturers.
Industry insiders pointed out that brand manufacturers with production scale advantages and product cost performance advantages will eventually win. First of all, compared with the cottage manufacturers, large-scale enterprises have strong bargaining power in chip procurement; secondly, brand manufacturers are more competitive in product design and technology innovation. Although the cottage products are cheap, the main reason is the use of cheap chips and drive power, while the heat sink also has cut corners.
In fact, Zhaochi began planning the LED industry as early as 2010 and set up a subsidiary, Shenzhen Zhaochi Energy Saving Lighting Co., Ltd., to develop LED packaging, TV backlight and lighting business. In 2011, the company officially launched LED packaging, TV backlighting and lighting production. In the second half of the year, the company achieved full self-sufficiency of TV backlights; the lighting products have cooperated with first-line brands such as Op, Sanxiong Laser (Japan), TCL Luminaire, Mitsubishi Chemical (Japan), and Superb Electronic GP (Europe). The LED revenue reached 270 million yuan. It achieved the production in the same year, the profit of the year, and the scale of sales in the current year.
Gu Wei said that the current LED is like the TV in 2006 and 2007. If you invest in it and do it all, the industry will develop very fast because the market is infinite. The company considers the future to tilt resources to LEDs, continuously expands high-quality customers at home and abroad, and rapidly increases production capacity, turning LED into the company's second largest performance engine. Revenue should be 50% or more of the company's revenue.
It is understood that Zhaochi currently has 50 LED packaging lines and 8 lighting assembly lines. Next, in order to meet the needs of market development, the company will rapidly expand production capacity. "Whether it is DVD or TV, Zhaochi is the first and the worst is the top three. To do LED, we will also hold high and fight to become the domestic industry leader." Gu Wei said.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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