Since August, the share price of Taiwan LED companies has fallen by an average of 10%.

The decline in LED TV shipments has not been scattered. Foreign-funded Morgan Stanley has strengthened its efforts to make a “buy” rating. The target price is 135 yuan and 130 yuan respectively. The Morgan Stanley research report maintains LED TV, monitor and lighting penetration forecasts at 20%, 15% and 4.6%, respectively, and believes that the market is overreacting, and LED upstream and downstream leading stocks have fallen.

Due to Samsung's reduction in the number of LED TV shipments and the impact of upstream raw material price increases, the LED group's share price has fallen by an average of 10% since August. The latest research report of the company is called the LED group. The report pointed out that the third quarter revenue increase The rate is between 10% and 15%. Although the fourth season is a traditional off-season, revenue will remain high, and the news from the panel and lighting market, LED TV, LED backlight monitor and lighting penetration rate There is no previous forecast decline.

According to the research report, the data from the industry is far more optimistic than the previous forecast: According to the data of the top five panel manufacturers, the penetration rate of LED TV in the second quarter came to 25%, compared with only 12% in the first quarter, far higher than the market. It is expected that LED TV penetration rate is expected to reach 30% to 40% in the second half of the year, with an average penetration rate of 22% to 28% for the whole year. As for LED backlight monitors, the annual penetration rate is 18%. In the lighting segment, the average shipment price of Japanese LED bulbs fell by 20%, and the penetration rate grew steadily. In terms of sales in July, LED bulbs accounted for 20% of shipments, and 2/3 of the sales amount came from LED bulbs. Philips, a lighting manufacturer, also announced that its sales of LED bulbs tripled in the second quarter, accounting for 12% of the total revenue of the lighting industry.

In July, LED revenues narrowed compared with June, with an average monthly growth rate of only 2%, while upstream revenue growth was better than downstream, mainly due to the continuous opening of new capacity, capacity utilization is still full, and order visibility is still six. To eight weeks. Downstream is due to the adjustment of inventory of PCs and laptops. The average monthly revenue growth rate is only 1%. Among them, Ronda and Dongbei have a high proportion of revenue, and the revenue in June is greatly affected. The Morgan Stanley report believes that the inventory adjustment will come to an end at the end of August, and the chip will be redesigned and the LED revenue will resume its growth momentum in August.

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