Analysis of the prospects and investment trajectory of the automotive electronics industry in 2018

In 2018, the industry as a whole is stable, structural differentiation is intensifying, and competition is intensifying by relying on more new products and technologies to win. Leading companies in the fields of new energy vehicles, automotive electronics, and automotive consumer services are worth exploring.

China's independent rise is the inevitable result of global industrial transfer. In 2018, the industry as a whole is stable and its structural differentiation is intensifying. The intensification of competition is to rely on more new products and new technologies to win, the leading strong and strong, the weak to fight and make strategic changes. Enterprises must maintain "speed", otherwise the risk of falling behind is greater. The pattern has grown, but the players have become less. From the perspective of subdivision, the leaders in the fields of new energy vehicles, automotive electronics, and automobile consumer services are worth exploring.

The “energy” era of electric vehicles has been driven by the sourcing of new energy vehicles from the public sector government to the private sector, but ensuring investment security is crucial. Electric buses enter a clear oligarchic pattern, and industry leaders are not afraid of the withdrawal of subsidies. Each round of industry adjustment is an opportunity for leading squeeze growth. In 2018, the new energy passenger car was in the midst of industrial layout and power outburst. Due to the improvement of barriers and quality requirements, the downstream and upstream will continue to squeeze the middle reaches significantly. The subsidy exit is accelerating, which is a huge blow to the low-end industrial chain. It is a substantial positive for the high-end leader. The idea of ​​2018 remains unchanged: “high-end up, low-end down”, and it must be adhered to by the law.

We expect total vehicle sales to reach 29.02 million units in 2017, up 3.9% year-on-year; among them, passenger car sales were 24.76 million units, up 1.9% year-on-year; heavy truck sales were 1.2 million units, up 57% year-on-year; large and medium passenger car sales were 150,000 units. , a year-on-year decrease of 18%. Looking forward to 2018, in the absence of a stimulus policy, we expect car sales to grow at a rate of 2.5% year-on-year, and predict that the growth rate will rebound in the third quarter.

The “long tail” of low- and middle-income people is not popular enough to increase consumption. The speed of China’s auto market is growing faster than that of developed countries. China is moving from “big” countries to “strong” countries. The biggest increase in US auto stocks was in the consumer upgrade phase of the 1970s and 1990s, when the three giants emerged and enjoyed the dividend stage of brand consumption.

Chinese passenger cars have clearly entered the stage of consumption upgrading. Leading profit growth still has potential, volatility is weakened, leading position is strengthened; low valuation, high dividends, leading still remain strong.

The core strength of China's auto industry is rising on its own. The car is tapping the potential, from the big country to the strong country, the supply chain system has become the global focus. Parts began to move toward grouping, diversification, globalization, and space opened.

The deep meaning of China's double points is that the accelerated subsidy withdrawal, the electric intelligent revolution, the opening of the era. The promotion of pure electric vehicles is accelerated (the battery cost is reduced, the products are continuously launched, and the clean energy network is perfect). In this process, pure electric drive is the fastest growth and the main force in the future.

We expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase from 20,000 to 1.8 million vehicles in 2014-2020, with a CAGR of over 50% and a penetration rate of 6%. In the short term, we will closely follow the trend of state subsidy policies. In the long run, the leading value is still vast.

The global electrification process has shifted from “policy-driven” to “product-driven”. In Europe, the market is limited to selling fuel vehicles and China's double-point system. The surface electrification market is driven by government policies and driven by car products. The willingness to consume becomes passive.

We predict that the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 6 million units in 2020, with a penetration rate of 5.7%. In 2020, the electric platform models will be launched, with 32 million units in 2025, and the penetration rate will reach 26.3%.

In terms of valuation, following the fundamentals, value, and growth stocks have their own merits. It is estimated that the market will “first value, then grow”, and each has its own merits. The valuation of the leading value is low and the certainty advantage is obvious; the valuation premium of the high-quality growth stocks has entered the low point for many years, waiting for the elimination of the growth uncertainty of individual stocks, and the subsequent performance valuation will rise. The performance of 10-15 times of PE first-line blue chips in 2017 is determined to increase, and the performance of 15-20 times PE White Horse growth in 2017 is doubled.

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