Microblogging has gone crazy, do you want to go crazy?

Lei Feng network (search "Lei Feng network" public number attention) : Yin Sheng, the author of this article, Internet value researcher, former Forbes deputy chief editor.

Abstract: There are two social brothers in Ali family who have comparable market value. Weibo has already entered the billion-dollar club. Will the unfamiliar streetmen in the live broadcast field follow suit? With this problem, Yin Sheng has recently had an in-depth exchange with the unfamiliar COO Wang Li, and thus has this article.

After the privatization buyer’s group unveiled a plan a week ago to withdraw its privatization offer, its share price did not suffer from a sharp retreat of stock prices as many companies in the same situation, but instead rose by a quarter in five trading days. Perhaps for some investors, the long-term holding of the company's stock may be more valuable than the one-off opportunity of privatization - it belongs to the Ali family and belongs to the microblog of the big social network category in the last year. Performance is always full of delusions.

One year ago, the market value of unfamiliarity exceeded Weibo for a time, but since then microblogging has risen more than three times. The current market value has exceeded US$10 billion, and the unfamiliarity has only risen by 60%. Its market value has fallen below that of Weibo. 40%, and mainly in the past more than a month rise - during this time stranger shares have nearly doubled. The unexpected financial situation of Momo is also encouraging:

In the highly sought-after live broadcast area, the company almost slammed a fortune - the business revenue last quarter reached $ 57.9 million, accounting for 58% of the company's revenue, and this business has not yet started a year ago. In the first quarter of this year, it was the first quarter in which Momo disclosed live income independently. It reached US$15.6 million, accounting for 30% of the company’s revenue.

Going further, the main income of Momo was followed by mobile marketing (39%), member subscription (37%), games (20%), and paid expressions and live music. But the impact of live broadcasting on unfamiliarity is far more than financial. It almost reinvents the company. This is exactly what the unfamiliar management sought: When they decided to set foot in the live broadcast in the third quarter of last year, it seemed that they would have it because They ventured to use live streaming as a direct replacement for the location of the previously discovered "discovery" feature.

The impact of this choice can be seen in the financial report: In the third quarter of last year, the monthly active users of strangers experienced a sharp drop from the previous quarter, dropping sharply from the record high of 78.4 million in the previous quarter to 69.8 million, even if it had just passed. In the quarter, monthly active users still did not reach the historical high point of a year ago, only 74.8 million, but the growth trend has been re-established on a new basis.

At the same time, the company’s income structure has also changed: From the fourth quarter of last year, revenues from games and members have dropped or stagnated. This has both an overall decrease in the number of active users and a problem of growth bottlenecks in the existing model, but there are also intentional ingredients. For example, after having tasted the sweetness in the live broadcast, Momo decided to focus the game on its social attributes. Relevant products do not have anything to do with the pressure of the past as opposed to the pressure of revenue.

On the contrary, if you do not catch the live broadcast, you may encounter not only financial losses but also whether the company can continue to maintain its market position . The reason why Momo survived from the shadow of Tencent a few years ago is that it aimed at what Tencent did not provide or offered very well from the very beginning—to young people who entered the society young or bored to closed socialization. Provide a new choice.

In the eyes of the unfamiliar COO Wang Li, the social behavior of the unfamiliarity is more towards the entertainment attribute, which is different from Weibo's media attributes, WeChat and QQ's communication attributes. In other words, if the user is looking for fun, making friends is both a form of fun and a way to find more fun. This is also destined to be unable to enter the O2O field of heavy assets. Although the previous temptation has existed, the company’s management understands that this is something they cannot touch. They ultimately benefited from local advertising.

After the success on the live broadcast, the unfamiliar street seems to have more clearly defined this position, that is to say, to become a platform for pan-social and pan-entertainment. Its future depends on whether or not more users can use it as social and entertainment. Entrance - Currently unfamiliar users are mainly in first-tier cities because they provide sufficient population density for local social networking. However, they are also studying the possibility of second-tier cities and fourth-tier cities, especially after witnessing the success of Weibo. At present, more than 70% of users from second-tier, fourth-tier cities and below are already in the country.

Another factor closely related to the future is whether or not it can fall behind in the rapidly changing entertainment trends and user tastes. These changes may lead to the restructuring of relations, but Wang Li believes that after the success of the live broadcast The risk of unceremonious position uncertainty has been greatly reduced. The next possibility that may have a significant impact on the industry in which it is located may be AR/VR, but it may have a significant impact for a few years. This gives the unfamiliarity enough time. Follow and prepare.

For now, the main concern of management is still to focus on the video, Zuckerberg's mouth will be 2021 to occupy 70% of the mobile traffic information form a fine-scale layout. The success of the company’s live broadcast is actually the result of this video strategy, rather than a purely live broadcast strategy. Before launching the live broadcast, the company’s first initiative was to broadcast live in the music field, a few days ago. It also launched a "moment" of time-limited video sharing services, and has included short video programs - live broadcasts, moments, and short videos are the three major focuses of mid- and long-term strategies identified by unfamiliar management.

Wang Li said that all that Momo does is centered around improving the efficiency of social networking - after all, even today, the features most used by users are still "near people" -- these products are indispensable for improving social efficiency. They can make social panorama.

In the past, users could only understand one person and discover new friends through the update of personal information in the street, but the information provided by these materials was limited. Even if the strangers took various incentives, many users did not want to update. With their data, and similar moments when such products come out, users will get enough motivation and lower thresholds to provide more information. Although this will also have an impact on some of its past revenue models, such as with the more effective model of video, users may be reluctant to spend money to purchase some traditional functions for displaying themselves.

Also, when we talk about unfamiliarity, it is always the old question that cannot be bypassed: how it protects itself in the shadow of the giant. However, Wang Li believes that after so many years of unfamiliarity can still have a place in the social field, has proved its existence value, it needs to do is adhere to its tonality, and in the field of competition such as live broadcasting, strangers have been established The social attributes make it superior and longer lasting than most independent live broadcast companies.

In his eyes, Momo has only one opponent - mobile QQ, its huge user size and similar positioning module with Momo is worrying. However, Wang Li believes that the advantage of unfamiliarity is that it never considers itself unbreakable like QQ. It always puts itself in a state of preparation for change, which makes it easier to grasp new opportunities for change, and often Go all out.

"(A lot of companies) are sure to seek stability after they are listed. We don't. We generally think that it is a directional thing, we will all grasp it, and we will be more radical... It's just like a new person. (To invest) new world."

However, Yin Sheng believes that the current determination of the value of unfamiliarity remains a challenge, because:

Its current growth is almost entirely dependent on live streaming, while the live broadcast service currently provides only two quarters of data;

In the 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier cities, it seems that it has not yet found a proper way to sink, and this is directly related to its maintaining the momentum of user growth;

In addition, when it expands, whether or not it can continue to maintain and enhance unique tonality, just as communication is to WeChat and QQ, and the media is to Weibo, so as to establish a stable platform value, and those new entrepreneurs take the opportunity to The possibility of constructing the local social relationships it focuses on also always exists.

In general, its irreplaceability as a platform is still lower than Weibo.

Taking into account the growth rate and uncertainty, I think the same level of valuation given to Weibo now is relatively safe. In the previous article "Weibo rushed to 10 billion US dollars, is the bubble or value rediscovery? In the article, I gave Weibo 15 to 20 times the market-sales rate, and each month active users ranged from $40 to $50. In the past four quarters, Momo’s revenue was US$227 million, and monthly active users were 74.8 million, corresponding to a valuation range of US$300-4.5 billion.

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